Report prepared by US govt says it’ll be tough for China to invade Taiwan

An annual report on the United States Congress said that while China is likely to be preparing a plan to take Taiwan by force, it is hard for it to do so.

The 136-page report, titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019”, was released on May 2, 2019.

It had been prepared by the Department of Defense (DOD), and is coordinated with other divisions and agencies in the U.S. government, according to a news release from the DOD on May 1.

Different ways to force Taiwan to reunite with the motherland

According to the report, it will be tough for China to take Taiwan by force as China lacks the heart assault landing capabilities.

The island is situated about 180km off the southeastern coast of China across the Taiwan Strait.

The report, which cites writings from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), said China has “an array of alternatives for a Taiwan campaign” to bring the entity under its control.

Occupy and it ranges from maritime blockade and an “ air to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize some or all of Taiwan or its islands”.

It goes on to provide details as to how China can run these operations.

For instance, a strategy that uses an air and maritime blockade can possibly cut off Taiwan’s vital imports and isolate it forcing it to surrender.

Pros: China will find it hard to conquer Taiwan

Another option is a large scale amphibious invasion, which the report said is among the “difficult and most complex operations ”.

The difficulties involved in this kind of invasion include having air and maritime superiority, being able to sustain the attacks with “uninterrupted support”, in addition to the “complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency”.

But that depends on the troops being able to generate a successful landing and breakout (military term for “advancing from the enemy’s defensive line”) in the first place.

While the report said the PLA is capable of taking medium-sized Taiwan-held islands, such as Matsu or Kinmen, accomplishing a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is going to be challenging.

In addition, Timothy Heath, a researcher in U.S. think tank Rand, told South China Morning Post that China currently does not have enough number of ships capable of transporting troops for an invasion.

Not a wise move politically

Besides the risk, this kind of operation carries risk .

The report said an attempt to invade Taiwan would not only “likely strain China’s armed forces”, but would galvanise opinion on Taiwan and generate international resistance ” international intervention”.

China’s military is advancing

But despite current weaknesses in the Chinese military, China could still improve on its capabilities as long as orders came from the nation ’s leaders, Beijing-based military specialist Li Jie was quoted in SCMP.

The report also noted that “Taiwan’s benefits continue to diminish as China’s modernisation efforts continue”:

“The PLA continues to make profits in amphibious warfare by developing additional capabilities to conduct amphibious landings and capture and defend little islands. ”

But to counter China’s advancing capabilities, Taiwan is currently taking measures to create capabilities and new strategies .

China has not ruled out military option to reclaim Taiwan”

China has not ruled out the use of force to take Taiwan under its control.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated this message before in January on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the issuing of “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”, advocating the Taiwanese people to accept that Taiwan “has to be and will be reunited” with the “motherland”.

He also recognized the “one country, two systems” model as an arrangement that Taiwan can follow.

The model is currently applied on Hong Kong and Macau.

However, critics watching Hong Kong closely have dismissed the idea, saying, “Today Hong Kong, tomorrow Taiwan”.

They argue that Hong Kong’s autonomy has eroded under the model as the Beijing government is increasingly asserting its authority on the Special Administrative Region (SAR), despite initially promising not to export its socialist system and policies to Hong Kong.

Taiwan remains as one of Beijing’s.

Relations between Taipei and Beijing have taken a dip under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen refused to confirm the “1992 Consensus”, which is a mutual agreement that there’s only “one China”, although both sides interpret it otherwise.

Best picture via David Paul Morris-Pool/Getty Images

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